Climate change, security … and Indonesia.

Australia can, with difficulty, handle most of what climate change throws at us. Our biggest, nearest neighbour cannot.

The future is already here ... floods in Jakarta

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is melting fast and is at severe risk of total collapse. It contains enough water to raise global sea levels by more than three metres and has been melting over four times as fast as the Arctic.

Every decade, summer sea ice in the Arctic is shrinking by 12.5%. The fabled North-West Passage is now navigable for extended periods.

Illness and death from heat and humidity as a result of climate change will make large areas of the planet uninhabitable. A recent comprehensive study investigated the global threshold beyond which temperature and humidity become deadly.

“Around 30% of the world’s population is currently exposed to climatic conditions exceeding this deadly threshold for at least 20 days a year,” the researchers concluded.

“By 2100, this percentage is likely to increase to [around] 48% under a scenario with drastic reductions of greenhouse gas emissions and [around] 74% under a business-as-usual scenario.”

Melting ice  ...  global fires and floods

These trends in heat and sea levels will cause many millions of people to become climate refugees, fleeing their homes to stay alive. Even under the more optimistic scenario, no country, including Australia, will escape serious harms. According to data compiled by the World Bank, there will be more droughts and floods, more intense and lasting longer. Large areas of the country will be effectively uninhabitable for much of the year.

“The science shows that Australia will experience devastating climate impacts if it follows a high-emissions pathway,” says the World Bank analysis.

“Without urgent action, heatwave-related excess deaths will increase by 471% under a high emissions scenario by 2080 and the area burned by fires will increase by over 12,000 square kilometres per year by 2050. The combination of sea level rise, coastal erosion and fiercer weather will cause chaos for Australia’s economy, costing around AUS$611 billion by 2050.

“The faster Australia adopts low-carbon policies, the less the climate impacts cascade and the more manageable they become. Limiting temperature rise to 2°C will see the cost of climate impacts in Australia drop from 7% of its GDP in 2100 under a high emissions scenario to 1.93%.”

So under even the most optimistic (and unlikely) scenarios, climate change will hit us hard. Not so hard, though, as it will hit our nearest neighbours. And Australia will have no option but to deal with their much worse problems as well as its own.

Trouble in the neighbourhood

The World Bank calculates that around 100,000 Australians will be vulnerable to sea level rise by 2050 (now 70,000) and between 130,000 and 200,000 by the end of the century.

In contrast, 8.9 million Indonesians are vulnerable right now. By 2050 the figure is expected to be 11-12 million and, by the end of the century, 13-16 million.

In 1950 the capital, Jakarta, had a population of 1.5 million. Today, it’s 701% higher at 11.7 million. It grew in 2024 alone by another 198,000, or 1.7%.

Even without climate change, Jakarta has serious problems. As sea levels rise, the city is sinking fast. Half is now below sea level and by 2050, according to Indonesia scientists, it could be entirely submerged. The situation has been caused by a confluence of factors, none of which is likely to be reversed: it is built on low, swampy land with 13 rivers running through it. Extraction of ground water to supply the population has caused the highly compressible soils to compress further under the sheer weight of the city.

It's not only Jakarta. Sea levels have already been rising throughout the country, by an average of more than a metre in the past 35 years.

As this trend continues, even the most optimistic projections herald massive disruption throughout the Indonesian archipelago by mid-century.

Across the archipelago, sinking land has contributed only 15% to the overall problem. Most of the rest is due to the sea itself: 35% directly due to melting ice in the polar regions and 40% due to molecular changes in the ocean caused by salinity and temperature. But further large-scale melting of Antarctic ice is now irreversible, even under the most ambitious scenarios for climate action. As the ocean continues to warm, those molecular changes can be expected to continue and increase.

Australia and New Zealand, working together, are capable of dealing with many of the long-term effects of sea level rise on the island nations of the south Pacific. Tuvalu, perhaps the most immediately threatened, has a population of around 10,000. Kiribati, almost equally threatened, has 135,000. Other island states with larger populations, such as Fiji and the Solomon Islands, are seriously, though less dramatically, affected. In time, they will all need substantial assistance in the forms of infrastructure and – in some cases – relocation of people.

The Pacific islands are attracting Australia’s attention largely to keep China out. Indonesia’s situation is at least as serious and, from Australia’s point of view, an even greater security issue.

The Indonesian archipelago consists of around 17,500 islands from the biggest, Sumatra, to tiny uninhabited islets scattered across a vast ocean. Java alone has a population of 158 million, or some 57% of the national population.

Some islands – two quite recently – have already disappeared. More will follow. Of the 92 most vulnerable outer islands, 42 are inhabited. Some of those islands will become uninhabitable, presenting a problem of a similar scale to that of the Pacific. They will expect to be relocated within the nation’s borders but achieving that may not be easy.

The northern coast of Java is particularly subject to sea level rise. They include some of the most densely-populated places on Earth. This map shows the areas which will be permanently underwater if seas rise by 1.5 metres. Estimates of when this may occur vary, but the most recent data on Antarctic sea-ice indicate it is likely to arrive sooner than most previous models have estimated.

Even this underplays the extent of the problem. Areas which are not fully submerged will still be affected by storm surges, riverine floods and by the millions of people forced from their homes. Then there are the fires.

Wildfire has been a long-term problem in Indonesia but, under pressure from climate change, the fires are getting worse and lasting longer.

“In 2023, Indonesia experienced a significant surge in wildfires,” the World Bank reported, “with the total area burned reaching 1.16 million hectares, a fivefold increase from 2022 … Human activities contribute to 98% percent of all fires, primarily due to social and cultural factors, including economic needs. Fire is a cheaper and easier method to clear land for crops, particularly oil palms …

“Most fires in Indonesia are linked to ownership claims or traditional agricultural methods like slash-and-burn land clearing. This trend is likely to continue in the near future. In Kalimantan, the Indonesian part of Borneo, about one third of the tropical forests have been cut down in the past few decades.

“In 2018, some 53 percent of Indonesians were living in poverty, defined by the World Bank's international poverty line. For many farmers, slash-and-burn is the fastest, easiest, and most cost-effective way to clear land, providing access to food and income.”

Fires in 2019 were estimated to have shaved $US52 billion, or  0.5%, from Indonesia’s GDP. The long-term health costs of smoke drift, both within the country and its near neighbours, may be even greater: peat fires, once started, can continue for years and disastrous fires are now happening almost every year.

 The myths about mass migration

The notion that climate change will lead to mass international migration from poor countries to rich ones has largely been debunked by the UN refugee agency, UNHCR.

“We know that 70% of all refugees live in countries neighbouring their own,” the agency said. “Whether fleeing conflict or disaster, people prefer to remain as close as possible to home and family. Those forced to abandon an area severely affected by climate change are also less likely to have the means to move long distances.”

The greatest burden of dealing with those numbers is unlikely to fall on Australia. Fears of a massive armada of desperate and aggressive ship-borne climate refugees are seriously overblown, although we can reasonably expect a significant increase in refugees and asylum seekers. Some may come by boat; most, as today, will come by air.

Even relatively small numbers are likely to create politically sensitive anxiety. Ever since the Tampa affair in 2001, both sides of Australian politics have followed the same, often alarmist, song sheet. Calls for stern action against asylum seekers will be renewed and strengthened; human rights and the rule of law will again be under attack.

It is almost impossible to estimate meaningfully the numbers of people being displaced. In the past, those wanting to migrate to Australia from south and south-east Asia have used Indonesia as a final staging post. According to the UNHCR, Indonesia already hosts almost 15,000 people in this category. Most (68%) have been assessed to be refugees but are still there.

The same route is likely to be used by some of the very large numbers to be displaced by climate-related disasters. South and South-East Asia contains several of the nations most likely to be affected. If the patterns of the past are repeated, substantial numbers wanting to come to Australia will instead end up in Indonesia with nowhere else to go: Australia’s border controls are effective, if inhumane.

And so, thousands of newcomers in need of support will be added to the even larger numbers of Indonesia’s own internal refugees forced out of their homes by climate change. But the economic, social and political pressures on Indonesia have not figured in the Australian discussion. All the attention has been on the Pacific, a serious but far less intractable situation.

Why Australia needs a stable Indonesia

“No country is more important to Australia than Indonesia, said Paul Keating in 1994. “If we fail to get this relationship right, and nurture and develop it, the whole web of our foreign relations is incomplete …

“An Indonesia mired in poverty, split by ethnic or regional tensions, and hostile to Australia, would have had incalculable consequences for this country. And not just for our security but for our economic prosperity as well.”

It was no coincidence that Anthony Albanese’s first overseas visit as Prime Minister was to Indonesia. And he quoted, word for word, Keating’s line about no country being more important. But the relationship remains undercooked, with indifference and ignorance on both sides. But right now, they are more important to us than we are to them.

“It is vital to our interests that we have a strong security partnership with Indonesia. But Australia is less important to Indonesia’s own defences”, an Australian scholar of Indonesian affairs, Tim Lindsay of Melbourne University, wrote recently.

“We are also not fully trusted. In addition to lingering concerns about the AUKUS deal with the US and UK, Australia’s role in the independence of Timor–Leste in 1999 resulted in Indonesia famously tearing up the sweeping security treaty Keating negotiated with Suharto in 1995 …

“As for the economic relationship, our low profile in Indonesian markets – despite our proximity – severely limits our leverage and influence in Indonesia.”

With the disruptions of climate change adding to the existing fragilities in Indonesian politics and society, Australia has an opportunity to change that relationship. The need for outside help, already considerable, will become more and more urgent as climate change progresses. Aid gives us the chance to connect directly with the people, not only with the nation’s powerful and detested elites.

A deficit of hope

At the time of writing, waves of rioting – mostly by young people – were sweeping the archipelago in perhaps the most significant unrest since the end of the Suharto regime in 1998. They are the result of thwarted hope for a better future among the nation’s youth. Over 110 million, or 41% of the population, are aged under 25 but opportunities for many are limited.

“A palpable economic slowdown in Indonesia suggests that the wave of protests may be a warning sign of long-term political risk,” warns Liam Gannon, an Indonesia expert from the Australian National University.

“The political consequences of a sustained slump in economic conditions could be profound. If the government fails to protect living standards, it is likely to have ramifications not just for Prabowo’s popularity, but also for Indonesia’s democratic stability.”

Youth unemployment is at critical levels: 19 million people between 15 and 24 are out of work, and even university education doesn’t seem to help much. More than half a million young Indonesians with bachelor’s or master’s degrees are unemployed.

Data on income reveal the decline in the share of national income going to the poorest. When Suharto was ousted in 1998, their share was around 20%; that has now fallen by about a third, to under 14%.

Comparing income distribution between Indonesia and Australia shows clearly where the money is disproportionately going. Those at the top are doing far better than their Australian peers but the middle class – the 40% who are neither rich nor poor – are squeezed.

The situation is complicated by the very high proportion of workers – some 56 million, or 59% of the entire workforce – employed in the unregulated informal economy, with low pay, little protection and few, if any, benefits. This sector accounts for 39% of GDP but pays little tax. Half-hearted government attempts to regulate the sector and to institute some protections for workers have failed.

The difficulties of inequality are worsened by the relatively low per capita levels of income and wealth in the developing countries of south and east Asia. Any income reduction hits much harder here.

For many in the middle class, purchasing power is being eroded by declining income and rising prices. And Value-Added Tax, a regressive tax which disproportionately hits those with lower incomes – are being increased to service government deficits. A tone-deaf administration raised already-generous allowances for politicians.

All of this is set against the well-founded perception that the ruling elites are deeply corrupt. According to Transparency International, 92% of Indonesians believe government corruption is a big problem and 30% of public service users had paid a bribe in the past 12 months.

All this and climate too

Without major political, social and economic change, the chances of Indonesia enduring as a stable and peaceful society seem vanishingly small. The gulf between those in power and the mass of the people is already critical and likely to get worse.

The relatively new administration of Prabowo Subianto is under serious pressure and may fall. But even if it does, in the absence of any genuine credible political grouping outside of the entrenched elites – the military, the police, and the Widodo and Prabowo factions – it would be replaced with something else equally out of touch and corrupt.

Nusantara ... new, expensive and isolated

When the capital is moved from Jakarta to the new city of Nusantara, now being built on safer land in Borneo, those elites will be even further removed from the population. That expensive, divisive project is emblematic of an elite which lavishes luxury on itself while the people struggle. It is of a piece with the payments being made to politicians, a government budget wrecked by unaffordable thought-bubble projects, declining living standards and tax increases hitting the poor harder than the rich. The young protesters are demanding a democratic reset. They are much more likely to get more of the same.

Australia relies on a stable Indonesia as a central element in its defence strategy, to safeguard sea lanes, to counter terrorism, to restrict illegal fishing and to control people smugglers. Indonesia’s problems cannot be fixed from outside, but other countries – most obviously, Australia – should take whatever actions they can to encourage investment and reform.

As climate change hits more and more severely, we must be prepared to deploy substantial resources to relieve natural disasters, at the same time as we will be dealing with our own. That will require a new, permanent and professional relief force to meet the needs that cannot go on being left to volunteer State Emergency Services and to a defence force that has its own job to do.

The time to start is now.